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How much damage will the Keystone XL pipeline be responsible for?

The pipeline, if built, will transfer around 30 million barrels of oil per year (83 thousand barrels per day). That is 0.086% of current oil consumption.

The pipeline is planned to operate for 50 years, long enough to reach visible disaster. Thus, its oil will be responsible for about .086% of the damage. The responsibility is shared by the mines where the oil is extracted and the plants that burn it, so let's say 1/3 of the responsibility falls on the pipeline.

The disaster is likely to destroy most of humanity and most of humanity's goods. We can estimate the size of this disaster as roughly equal to the economic value of all of humanity's possessions. That is around 360 trillion dollars.

.086% of that is around 310 billion dollars. 1/3 of that roughly 100 billion dollars. That is a rough estimate of the economic damage that the Keystone XL pipeline will be responsible for. It amounts to about 2 billion dollars a year, if they keep it running for 50 years, but breakdown of society may make that difficult before 50 years from now.

Thanks to Michael Hannon for finding these data.

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