Expensive plans to protect Rockaway in NYC from
future hurricanes
may not be
effective.
The article explains that efforts to estimate the probability of a
another similar disaster were bogus or confused. Meanwhile, science
has advanced since the 2000s. We should make a more plausible
estimate of that probability, based on acceleration of global heating,
then increase it for our continued incomplete knowledge.
Then we should make another such estimate assuming that proposed flood
protection plans have been implemented. We can judge whether those
plans are worth implementing based on how much they decrease the
disaster likelihood.
If even after flood protection it is likely that another disaster will
happen within 50 years, the federal government should buy out the
properties there, and declare it a protected zone. Let it become
beach, or wetlands. We had better be spending that money on
decarbonization, which protects the whole world, not on short-term
protection of each area by itself.