War game simulation suggests that
an attempted Chinese invasion of
Taiwan would fail,
leaving Taiwan in devastated condition though
unconquered, while wrecking the Chinese military and causing
substantial casualties for the US and Japan.
These casualties would be large by the standard of 21st century US
wars, but small compared with what the US experienced in the Vietnam
War or the Korean War.
Taiwan would rebuild its infrastructure with help. Being devastated
for a decade is not as bad as becoming brainwashed slaves forever.
Another article about
the same war games
reports on projected political effects of the war's damage, but I
think it exaggerates that. If the US had defeated China and still
possessed most of its armed forces, no other enemy would risk a
conventional war.
I wonder how this would affect global heating and climate defense.
The article also suggests how Taiwan could build a more effective
defense for much less money.
If China were not a totalitarian dictatorship, I think it would choose
not to attack Taiwan, rather than suffer such a defeat. Surely some
sort of compromise and peace would be better for everyone. Even Xi
might choose peace, and I hope he does; but he may not care about the
cost or the casualties to China as long as he wins.